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Every weekend, thousands of football tips land in your feed. Some come from tipsters with confident screenshots, some from statistical models, some from the bookmakers' own odds. Almost none come with a straight answer to the obvious question: how often are they right?

The honest answer is that football is hard to predict, and the best predictions are usually less accurate than people expect.

Why football is so hard to call

Football is a low-scoring sport. A single deflection, red card or goalkeeper error can decide a match that one side dominated. In basketball, the better team almost always wins. In football, upsets are built into the sport.

That means even a strong model will often be "wrong" on individual matches. A team given a 70% chance of winning will still fail to win roughly three times in ten. That isn't a bad prediction, it's what 70% means.

Hit rate is the wrong measure

Most tipsters advertise a win percentage, but it's easy to game. Pick only heavy favourites and your hit rate looks excellent while your tips offer no real value. Pick a run of 1.10 odds shots and you could be right nine times in ten and still lose money.

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